Over the past 12 months, the PC market
has experienced weaker-than-expected demand, influenced by economic
challenges and shifting political landscapes. Consumer and business
confidence has been low, and as a result, expectations for recovery
have been continually delayed. However, there have been some bright
spots, particularly in local PC growth driven by government education
initiatives and public sector frameworks. The stock situation has
remained stable overall, and there is strong anticipation surrounding
the potential of AI, especially when combined with Windows 11-driven
refreshes. The share of AI-enabled PCs, featuring built-in NPUs, has
been steadily increasing, and this trend is expected to continue.
Looking ahead to the next 12
months, demand is likely to remain weak in the first half of 2025,
with a significant boost anticipated in the second half as the end
of Windows 10 support in October sparks a wave of refresh activity.
The share of AI PCs will increase, driven more by availability and
lower prices than by an immediate surge in demand. As product
variety expands and prices fall, Copilot+ PCs are also expected to
see greater adoption, although discussions in 2025 will probably
centre more on Windows 11 than on AI itself. Users remain uncertain
about how AI will impact their daily use of PCs, and while
understanding is likely to improve in the coming months, it will
take time to fully grasp the role of AI in personal computing.
Over the next 12–16 months, we
expect greater clarity regarding how AI will shape personal device
usage, with increased variety in AI-powered PCs and price reductions
driving growth. Competition among chip vendors is expected to
intensify, and while the growth of AI PCs may initially be driven by
availability rather than demand, certain sectors—such as
workstations in industries like health, design, and engineering—are
likely to see more active demand, as the value of AI has been
clearer in these areas for some time. The shift to mobile computing
will also continue, although stationary systems are expected to
experience a resurgence in 2025 due to the need for Windows 11 upgrades.
In summary, 2024 has been an
exciting year for the PC market, with a new chip vendor, impressive
local performances, and the promise of AI-driven innovation.
Although the market has not yet witnessed explosive growth due to
external challenges and the newness of the technology, the future
holds exciting potential for PCs as AI and Windows 11 reshape the
landscape. The coming years promise to bring new opportunities and
changes that could redefine personal computing.
For further insights and
detailed analysis of market trends, stay tuned to CONTEXT’s
weekly IT Industry Forum webinars.
