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CONTEXT Forecast: European IT Distribution Market to Grow 3.6% in 2025
Market poised for rebound as AI investments, PC refresh cycles, and public sector initiatives drive momentum
London, 12th March 2025 - CONTEXT, the global market intelligence firm, forecasts 3.6% year-on-year growth in European IT distribution sales for 2025, marking a significant turnaround following two years of stagnation and decline.
The latest Q1 2025 CONTEXT Forecasting Report reveals a steady recovery across the IT distribution sector, with growth expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year. AI-driven infrastructure investments, upcoming PC refresh cycles, and public sector digital initiatives are among the primary catalysts for this renewed momentum.
"After a tough period, the European IT distribution market is regaining strength", said Anthony Frot, Research Director at CONTEXT. "The PC refresh cycle, AI-led infrastructure demand, and a more stable macroeconomic environment are setting the stage for sustainable growth. While challenges persist, the signs for 2025 are encouraging."
Key Growth Drivers for 2025
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PC Refresh Cycle Acceleration – The end of Windows 10 support is expected to drive corporate and consumer upgrades, particularly in mobile PCs. Mobile computing unit sales are forecast to grow 2.1% YoY in Q1 2025 and 4.7% over the full year, with most growth occurring in H2 2025. Desktop sales are predicted to increase by 4% YoY in Q1 and 5.1% for the year, while revenue is set to grow 5.8% YoY.
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AI Investment Surge – Increased spending on AI-ready servers and storage solutions is fueling on-premises infrastructure growth.
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Public Sector Stimulus – Government-led digital transformation initiatives, such as Spain’s Digital Kit program, will boost distribution revenues.
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Resilient Software & Services Growth – Strong software sales continue to outperform expectations, reinforcing distributors’ critical role in the supply chain.
Despite a slow start in Q1 2025, CONTEXT anticipates consistent quarter-on-quarter growth, with market confidence improving as economic conditions stabilize. However, risks remain, including geopolitical uncertainties in Europe, potential trade conflicts, and fluctuating exchange rates. ’’We are seeing increased optimism among distributors, especially in AI-driven categories’, said Anthony Frot. ’The second half of 2025 is likely to be stronger as businesses resume infrastructure investments and governments push digital adoption. However, the market remains sensitive to political and economic volatility.’
Access the Full Report: https://www.contextworld.com/g/forecasting
ABOUT CONTEXT
CONTEXT’s global market intelligence, performance benchmarks and opportunity analysis empower clients to optimise operations and accelerate tomorrow’s revenues. With over 35 years of industry partnership and experience reporting on large datasets, CONTEXT delivers analytics at all points in the value chain, providing clients with actionable insights rooted in concrete data and a profound understanding of customer needs. CONTEXT is headquartered in London, with over 300 staff across the world, and in 2019 was recognised as one of the UK’s Best Workplaces™ by Great Place to Work®.
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