PC sales through European distribution had an
underwhelming start to the year due to poor performance in the
previous year. They fell by –3.3% year–on–year (YoY) in units and by
–5.5% in revenue in Q1, with economic headwinds exerting negative
pressure on demand.
For Q2 and beyond, we are cautiously optimistic
about better times ahead, although the strength of the recovery will
continue to depend on how well the European economy rebounds.
Mobile computing sales set for positive growth
For mobile computing (notebooks, notebook
workstations, and tablets), we are predicting a range of 0.9% to 8.9%
YoY growth in unit sales in Q2 2024. Our full–year forecast is 1.1% to
7.6% YoY unit sales growth and 0.9% to 7.2% YoY revenue growth. That
may sound more positive than it is, however, as we need unit sales
growth of roughly 8% to return to the volumes we had before the pandemic.
That said, the stock situation is fairly balanced
and much better than last year. Weaker comparatives to a year ago
should boost growth figures. Additionally, we are hopeful that
economic conditions will improve in the second half of 2024, with
anticipated interest rate cuts. This, along with the Windows 11
transition, should help to spur demand.
Subdued desktop spend continues
Growth is weaker overall in desktop PCs due to a
weaker YoY impact on sales and an ongoing shift towards mobile
products. That is why we will only see isolated pockets of growth in
Q2, for example, in the public sector. The second half of the year
will see better performance thanks to more favourable YoY comparisons,
the reemergence of delayed purchases, and Windows 11.
Overall, however, the forecast for desktop PC
growth is a range of –8.3% to 0.1% in YoY unit sales for Q2 2024. For
2024 as a whole, our forecast is –3.4% to 2.7% YoY for unit sales and
–4.1% to 1.8% for YoY revenue sales. All eyes are on the Bank of
England and the European Central Bank.
Stay tuned for more
insights in the next Forecast Fridays
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