A region–wide macro–economic recovery, public sector funding and some big–name sporting events next year should help propel desktop monitor and large format display (LFD) sales growth through European distribution.

The latest CONTEXT data predicts small levels of unit growth in desktop monitors, although prices will remain low. We expect LFD unit and revenue sales to bounce back in 2024 thanks to strong performance in signage, interactive and DV-LED LFDs.

Desktop monitor sales will slowly pick up

For the full year 2024, CONTEXT predicts year–on–year (YoY) desktop monitor unit sales growth at between -2.1% and 1.7%. That’s much improved from 2023’s range of –16.3% to –15.1%. Revenue is set to fall between –6.2% and 2.6% –again, up significantly from our prediction of –23.2% to –21.5% this year. Demand has been weak in the desktop monitor segment since the macroeconomic slump began in the second half of 2022. This drove heavy price competition and increased preference for entry–level monitors, dragging revenue down. Although the business market contributes the biggest share, consumer sales have been performing better of late thanks to increased demand for gaming and docking monitors.

In the coming year, we’ll see more public funds coming through as the DigitalPakt Schule fund nears the end of its lifespan in May, and also from NextGen EU, which will help to spur business investment. The hope is that interest rates have already peaked, which should increase business confidence, although the market may have to wait until the second half of the year before a return to growth. PC refreshes could spur more desktop monitor demand later in 2024, although prices are not expected to increase much until OLED monitors increase in popularity.

LFDs set to bounce back

A drop in public investment in 2023 led to many large projects being cancelled permanently or temporarily until the economy improves. That led to a –11% YoY decrease in units sold year–to–date (YTD). Saturation in the interactive category has increased price competition and driven down prices. However, this more competitive market, allied with the improved availability of entry–level interactive boards, has helped to propel education and business adoption. Improvements in the production of DV-LED have pushed down ASPs, leading to improved unit sales.

For 2024, increased investment in interactive LFDs in German schools will be helped by the DigitalPakt Schule fund, while NextGen EU will drive business investment. The latter should also ramp up as the overall economy improves and the outcome of several general elections becomes clear. The overall LFD market will also benefit from refreshes ahead of major sporting events in Europe: the Olympics in Paris and the UEFA football championships in Germany. Recovery is expected from Q2 onwards.

The Live CONTEXT Forecast sessions are taking place next week, so get in touch with the team if you would like to know more or get involved: forecasting@contextworld.com